Friday, September 10, 2004

Kerry's Gonna Lose

In Karl Rove's dreams! This post was lifted in it's entirety from a diary by cls 180 over at Kos.

Nine reasons why Kerry/Edwards will take it to the house:

1. George Bush had 3.4 million votes fewer than his challengers in 2000, this in a year when there was little interest in the election and the candidates were portrayed as the flip side of the same coin.

2. The only reason Nader is getting on state ballots is because Republicans are putting him there. Not Democrats, not Nader supporters, Republicans. Unless the Republicans who got him on the ballot actually go ahead and vote for him in November (and we have questioned the intelligence of Republicans on this site before), Nader will get far fewer votes than he got in 2000 (or at the very least he'll pull off the aforementioned unclear-on-the-concept Republicans).

3. Democrats are virtually united (at least for Democrats) in their desire to boot Bush. There is little likelihood that Democrats will jump ship in large numbers in November. Democrats have rarely shown such unanimity in any election.

4. Independents appear to be leaning Kerry in large numbers. You have to figure a Republican is going to proudly register as a Republican, no matter what. Independents appear to be disaffected Democrats more than anything else. Independents have overtaken Republicans in voter registration in a Harris poll I read recently (33% D, 29% R, 31% I)

5. Voter registration continues to defy expectations. After a slight increase in Republican registration after 9/11, Democrats are back to their historic advantage in registration numbers. I read on a diary this morning that registration in Durham, North Carolina alone favors Democrats by 6:1 or more.

6. Voter turnout for the primaries was phenomenal. Turnout in some states was 3 times normal. 5000 Republicans in New Hampshire alone wrote in a Democrats' name on their Republican primary ballots.

7. Three open House seats, 2 in very conservative districts, were taken by Democrats so far this year.

8. Polls run by the SCLM (So Called Liberal Media) consistently oversample Republicans and insist Kerry is in trouble. Fox, oddly enough, sees Kerry ahead or close to even. I'm just throwing out a possibility but you have to wonder, does Fox show the race close in order to scare Republicans to polls? Does ABC hope to spur Democrats with the same sort of reverse psychology? Just wondering.....

9. Bush has lost significant support among gays, Arab Americans, younger Cuban Americans, moderate Republicans, military families (if not military personnel themselves) and the elderly. Bush has gained support among......who? Name one large group of voters who can close the 3.4 million vote gap plus those Bush has lost since. Who are these people? Evangelicals alone won't cut it.

Sounds like pretty good reasoning to me.

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